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ALL IN THE GAME July 23, 2008    I caught Carrie Grosvenor's most recent post at about.com concerning the anticipated changes in The Price Is Right, the explosion of self-proclaimed insiders surfacing on message boards---the most overrated element of online opinion and the fear of the death knell of Price after Roger Dobkowitz's departure as senior producer.    Carrie is right on the money. "Game show message boards, blogs, websites, and my e-mail inbox are full of people sounding the death knell for The Price is Right. There are rumors everywhere, all of which are completely unsubstantiated," Grosvenor wrote. "I don't see any drastic changes forthcoming, and I think it's important to understand that, while we have no concrete information on what's to come, there's no reason to freak out and assume the worst."    The "freakout factor" which usually comes from hardcore onliners typically leads to quick reactions or overreactions and an immediate firestorm if such hardcores are not accepted as the defining authority on game shows or any other online topic. Go to online pages or message boards concerning pro wrestling, homeschooling, osteoperosis or even Karen and Richard Carpenter and you'll find the same eruptions.    I've read or been e-mailed every sort of speculation about the show since Kathy Greco, another long-time veteran of the show, was appointed to succeed Dobkowitz.    Let's examine the absolute facts: (1) Daytime ratings for Price are down 18 percent year-to-year. That should be no surprise. You're going to have the inevitable dropoff when a legend leaves an institution on television. Lest we forget 16 years ago when Jay Leno took over for Johnny Carson on The Tonight Show. Until Leno stopped attempting to follow Johnny's traditions and the firestorm cooled over David Letterman's snub for the 11:30 slot, Leno's ratings fell below Letterman. Where the real worry about The Price Is Right will come is if the numbers have a similar drop in year two of the Drew Carey era. (2) When The Price Is Right Million $ Spectacular aired on Friday nights, it won its time slot every week and did comparable 18-49 demographics to the scripted shows on CBS for the evening. Only when it was sent to Wednesdays as a sacrificial lamb opposite American Idol did the ratings fall. When Idol was over and the Spectacular went into reruns, Price was back in the top 20, even topping a number of first-run early summer offerings. (3) I can tell you from my experience in local television news, producers are fired in television---in news and entertainment---every week because of any of four reasons: ratings declines, incompetence, salary levels, or a company's desire for a fresh approach (which is usually tied to ratings declines). Dobokowitz was not in the incompetence category. He was probably dispatched for a combination of ratings, a desire for a facelift to the show and his salary. CBS has sliced the budgets on some of its Procter and Gamble soaps, going to more economical sets and shooting schedules. After 36 years with Price, CBS and FremantleMedia may well have decided it didn't want to keep that salary. Look at what's happening in a number of major television markets with local news. Veteran, experienced anchors are being jettisoned in increasing numbers in favor of cheaper talent. (4) Regardless of who the producer is, major new throngs of audiences will not suddenly flock to Price. Face it, network television has not had a major new daytime hit in more than 20 years. It hasn't. The View is not a major hit, it's simply fodder for columnists to write about outrageous comments and Elisabeth Hasselbeck crying. NBC tried hard to attract younger viewers with Sunset Beach and Passions and both of them failed. Daytime on NBC is now four hours of Today and an aging Days of Our Lives. ABC has the screaming Sallies and three soaps that have been around since Cro-Magnon Man. CBS has not even changed its daytime lineup since Family Feud Challenge was cancelled. The soaps are now largely drawing over-50s across-the-board. It's a fact of our changing society. Stay-at-home moms are much fewer in number than in the peak of daytime television in the mid-1970s. Your key target audiences are over-50 women, retired males, what stay-at-home moms exist and evening shift workers. Despite the massive efforts to flood The Price Is Right with college students and under-25s as contestants, college kids are not sitting around the dorms watching the show when school is in session. The huge majority of them are in class. You are not going to bring a whole new congregation to Price or any other daytime show whether you tweak it or make massive changes. (5) The hardcore onliners don't like to hear this and erupt when they do---but a change in producers on The Price Is Right is of absolutely no interest to 99.9999 percent of television viewers. The massive majority of them never visit a message board and only have a casual, passing knowledge---if that---as to who Roger Dobkowitz is. Their basic frame of reference is this: Price has been there for 36 years, it's an institution, Bob Barker retired, Drew Carey took over and they either like Drew or they don't. Plain and simple. They are not into the details as are the rabid hardcores.    So what does Kathy Greco bring to the table as the lead producer? She brings more than 30 years of experience with the show, which is both good and bad. Good because she recognizes and understands the show's history and its evolution; bad because if she is too tied to the Barker traditions, she may be slower to make the kinds of changes that CBS wants. She is a woman and with women still the basic demographic the networks are after, she will have more sensitivity and connection with that target audience. She also may well bring that fresh approach to the show that may have been restricted under Dobokowitz's leadership. We will not know any of that until she takes the reins and makes creative decisions that will affect the future of the show.    Greco may be dealing with a tangible element that no creative changes can alter: whether, over the long haul, Drew Carey is or was the right choice to succeed Barker. I'm reminded of Andy Griffith's comments about Jack Burns taking over as deputy Warren Ferguson after Don Knotts left The Andy Griffith Show. In a book by Dr. Richard Kelly, Griffith said: "We were giving (Burns) Don Knotts material. It wasn't his fault, it was our fault." Burns was paid off for the season after 13 shows when the chemistry wasn't working. Years ago, when old Joe Kearns died while playing the irascible Mr. Wilson on Dennis the Menace, he was replaced by the great Gale Gordon as Wilson's brother John. Despite the immense talents of Gordon, the writers were giving him Joe Kearns scripts and viewers never accepted Gordon. Yet, on M*A*S*H, when Wayne Rogers and McLean Stevenson left in the same season, Mike Farrell and Harry Morgan enjoyed a long run because the writers did not try to duplicate Trapper John with B.J. Hunnicutt and allowed Morgan to be his trademark lovable curmudgeon as Sherman Potter, rather than the style of Stevenson's Col. Henry Blake.    The truth is: in the 36th season, Drew Carey was doing Bob Barker's show. CBS executives became enamored with Carey when they saw him in rehearsals for Power of 10, which was a slower-paced, more conversation-style game with Millionaire overtones. By comparison, Price is a comet. Drew's machine gun speech patterns do not deliver the warmth, pleasure and smoothness viewers expect on Price in transitions into and out of breaks and games. Either one of two things are true: either the show needs to be altered to fit Carey's talents (a risk, because if the alterations are too drastic, traditional viewers could further drift away) or he is not going to grow into the role and make it Drew Carey's show. That simply did not happen in 2007-08. This very week on sportscaster Tim Brando's radio show, Brando---a member of the CBS Sports family---said: "I just can't watch it any more." Regardless, in year two, either Drew has to make The Price Is Right his show or he probably will never. That is something beyond the control of Kathy Greco or any other producer.    Without question, CBS is going to demand an increase in ratings this year. However, if those expectations are for mass hikes, they are way out of proportion. The numbers simply are not there in daytime television as they once were.    Any of possibly four things will happen in the next year: (1) CBS will be satisfied with the daytime numbers and Carey's performance enough to renew it; (2) The show's numbers will not pass CBS's requirements and Price will be canceled; (3) CBS could drop the show as a network offering but give Fremantle the right to produce it for syndication with CBS Television Distribution handling the syndication sales; (4) Price will continue on CBS but with a new host in 2009-10. Regardless, those of us in good health will continue to wake up in the morning and put our clothes on the same way as we always have.    Personally, I like Carrie Grosvenor's observation: "There's no reason to freak out and assume the worst." johnnygilbert.tv Miss Francis' gowns by Bonwit Teller © Copyright 2008   TVgameshows.net.    All Rights Reserved.

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